Zhang Lin Xiao
Now, there are real estate developers claimed that the shortage of land for housing supply is tight, real estate 期房 market really no room to sell? To be aware of this analysis problem, the best course, by means of data so that data to speak, but when the data is blurred Pushuo, we can only second best from the real estate market is starting the internal operation mechanism, to make a reasonable guess. < br> First, the current supply and demand situation 期房
1, 期房 supply
under the \sets, an area of 16,Moncler Online,612,UGG Australia,871 square meters available for sale housing, in which copy number of 67,945 residential units, an area of 8,UGGS Kopen,634,413 square meters;
10 月 pre License: pre-approved 49 permits, pre-approved area of 1,853,301 square meters, including 11,837 residential ploidy cover an area of 1,156,964 square meters.
2, 期房 transaction
under \, in which 443 sets of copy number of residential area of 47,015 square meters;
11 and 14 月 room online contract: 556 sets of copy number, an area of 52,052 square meters, of which copy number of 396 residential units, an area of 41,358 square meters.
2009 1 ~ October, Beijing 期房 contract volume residential are: 5957,6563,12581,14976,13662,UGG Adirondack,14341,12840,12117,Chaussures UGG Pas Cher,11620,11831 sets.
3, the current supply and demand situation 期房 day subscription and
contract volume is no representative, November 14 naturally can not explain what the data. However, from 1 October the average monthly contract volume is able to explain certain issues. 1 October this year, Beijing signed 期房 average monthly volume of 11,649 units.
general, about half of the property market to maintain a balance of supply and demand for the stock have a positive effect, Beijing is now available for sale 期房 copy number as 67,945 residential units, 1 October this year the average monthly contract volume of 11,649 units, the Beijing housing期房 supply, the current should be said that the basic balance, there is no so-called \sets, can be said to be very close. Of course, this may just be a coincidence, in the future can continue to achieve this basic balance, the key demand and supply will have to see changes in their respective.
Second, blurred Pushuo the
land supply, according to \and rental housing policy 400 hectares of land, 700 hectares of land for other real estate \\br> 10 28, \completed. This is the first time since Beijing in 2005 has been announced for the program year, completed the second year in the same year for the program. In the first 10 months of this year's residential land onto the market,Moncler Sito Ufficiale, including low-cost housing and land for affordable housing class 200 hectares, housing prices and public rental housing land 400 hectares, 700 hectares of land for other real estate.
the news to borrow Beijing Land Bureau official, then opened over the past month (October), the Beijing land market little is traded on the residential, commercial land, land supply a \the momentum of rise, decided to slow down in the October pace of land supply. into November, the land department will continue efforts to increase supply of residential land.
and November 11, \\planning construction area of 9,014,400 square meters. plus enter the market is trading and the upcoming class of 1,889,700 square meters of residential land for the Beijing residential area of approximately 850 million square meters,Giubbotti Moncler, planning construction area of 11,426,500 square meters.
year year, Beijing plans to release 1,300 hectares of residential land. If not removed by way of bidding, auction and sell the low-rent housing and land for affordable housing class in Beijing this year a total of 1,100 hectares of residential land use plans.
Beijing Land Resources Bureau has said that four quarter will increase land supply, the annual supply of residential land is expected to reach 1,000 hectares, which is the beginning of the program has been reduced. However, the progress from the current perspective, Beijing is only the first 10 months for the program completed 60%. In the next two months, we should focus on the supply of land to complete the 400 hectares have been \Evaluation of different land supply, the gap is large is hard to surprise. the land level transfer market, so \test \, Beijing, the city's residential land supply can not be completed early next year whether the plan, and now nature is not jumping to conclusions. In this case, the future demand and supply trends 期房 can only distinguish between different situations to be analyzed.
by the \Real Estate Transaction Management Network, \Center, the Beijing this year have been traded, together with transaction and is about to enter the market, the residential land area of 850 square meters, planning construction area of 11,430,000 square meters; this calculation shows, the average floor area ratio of residential land in Beijing about 1.34.
If you press the \each residential area of 127 square meters on average, you can form a supply of 137,165 residential units.
assumptions such as \volume rate at 1.34 to the formation of expected future supply of 13.4 million square meters of residential,Piumini Moncler, according to each residential area of 127 square meters on average, you can form a supply of 105,511 residential units.
2, Forward House needs
期房 future demand, it is difficult to know, in this can only make assumptions, we assume that the future demand 期房 generally consistent with the present. by 1 October this year, Beijing 期房 average monthly volume of 11,649 sets of contract terms, the annual 期房demand is about 139,788 units.
3, Forward House in Beijing this year when supply and demand gap
to complete 1,300 hectares of residential land supply plan, the Beijing next year, demand for residential 期房 gap :137165 -139 788 =- 2623 sets.
Beijing this year completed only if the 1,000 hectares of residential land supply, the Beijing next year, domestic demand gap 期房 :105511 -139 788 =- 34 277 for the set.
from the foregoing, when Beijing in the future to maintain the demand for residential 期房1 October this year, the average level, regardless of whether the completion of this year, residential land supply plan, just from this year's supply of residential land, it is a gap there.
more worthy of attention is, as some developers \.
shows that can be sold at the current sales trend 期房 residential point of view, there are real estate developers claimed that the shortage of land for housing supply is tight, there is no basis not lip service, but a considerable basis in fact.
can be sold to achieve a basic balance between supply and demand of residential Forward House, we can only, or against developers hoarding land, or severely reduce the single set of 70/90 housing policy area, or efforts to control demand for residential 期房, or \Three arrows shot \seen. This article posted in a blog specifically on the end of the year for interest in the real estate market in Beijing friends see. to emphasize that this is for my friends reference, not as any investment advice.
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